Football betting expert Simon Giles analyzes the data to dissect the issues plaguing Manchester United’s embattled manager as the team struggles to find success.
In the 2022-23 Premier League season, United finished third under Ten Hag, but their underlying statistics suggested they were more like the sixth-best team in the league. Despite outperforming their metrics, they ended the previous season in eighth place.
With the Premier League becoming increasingly competitive, United needed to enhance their process and performance just to maintain their eighth-place finish in the 2024-25 season.
Although there were some small improvements in the early stages of the campaign, Ten Hag’s team had previously relied on exceeding their expected numbers and winning tight games. However, this season, they squandered chances and experienced a downturn due to variance.
In a disappointing match against Spurs, United displayed a systemic lack of organization and numerous individual errors. Despite having almost all key players available, excluding Luke Shaw, the team struggled to compete.
Bruno Fernandes’ controversial red card, later overturned, made a comeback nearly impossible for the hosts, who were already being outshot 12-3 before the dismissal.
Throughout last season, United’s midfield weaknesses resurfaced, as opponents exploited gaps that were a recurring issue. The defensive flaws that plagued the team last season continued into this one, with only Sheffield United conceding more shots than United.
Despite a slight improvement in defensive performance, with United allowing fewer shots compared to last season, they have given up more clear-cut opportunities, with the quality of chances increasing significantly.
Ten Hag’s squad has conceded an average of 12.2 shots per game, ranking them eighth in the league – a decrease from the 17.4 shots allowed per game last season. Excluding minutes affected by red cards, this number improves to 11.4 shots per game, placing them sixth in the league.
Although United have managed to reduce the number of shots conceded, the increase in the quality of chances created by opponents remains a concerning issue for the team’s defensive stability.
